Poorer countries in northern Africa, Asia, and the Middle East that rely heavily on wheat imports face significant food insecurity as a result of Russia’s war in Ukraine, and the conflict threatens to drive up already skyrocketing food prices in much of the world, the UN food agency warned Friday.
Ukraine and Russia account for one-third of global grain exports, despite being sanctioned heavily for invading its neighbor two weeks ago.
With the conflict’s intensity and duration uncertain, “the likely disruptions to agricultural activities of these two major exporters of staple commodities could seriously escalate food insecurity globally when international food and input prices are already high and vulnerable,” said Qu Dongyu, director-general of the Rome-based Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).
The UN agency also stated that Russia is the leading producer of fertilizer, and the price of urea, a key fertilizer component, has more than tripled in the last year.
The uncertainty over whether Ukraine’s farmers will be able to harvest wheat ready in June is also concerning, according to Qu in a statement. “Massive population displacement has reduced the number of agricultural laborers and workers in Ukraine.” “It would be difficult to gain access to agricultural fields,” Qu observed.
Even if they could, Ukraine’s Black Sea ports are closed, and the government this week banned the export of wheat, oats, millet, buckwheat, and other food products in order to prevent a crisis in the country and stabilize the market.
The export ban imposed on Ukraine does not apply to its main global supplies, corn, and sunflower oil. It and Russia account for 52% of the global sunflower oil export market. They also supply 19% of the world’s barley, 14% of the world’s wheat, and 4% of the world’s corn.
“It is still unclear whether (other) exporters will be able to fill this gap,” Qu said, noting that wheat inventories in Canada are already depleted.
According to him, the United States, Argentina, and other wheat-producing countries are likely to limit exports in order to ensure domestic supply.
Countries that rely on wheat from Russia and Ukraine are likely to increase import levels, adding to the pressure. Egypt, Turkey, Bangladesh, and Iran import 60% of their wheat from Russia and Ukraine. Lebanon, Tunisia, Yemen, Libya, and Pakistan are also heavily reliant on wheat exports from these two countries.
“Supply chain and logistical disruptions on Ukrainian and Russian grain and oilseed production, as well as Russian export restrictions, will have significant food security ramifications,” Qu said.
FAO warned that if the conflict causes a “sudden and prolonged reduction” in food exports by Ukraine and Russia, it will put additional pressure on international commodity prices, “to the detriment of economically vulnerable countries.” According to the UN, “the global number of undernourished people could increase by 8 to 13 million” in 2022-2023, primarily in Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and North Africa.
Shortfalls in grain and sunflower seed exports by Ukraine and Russia may only be partially offset by alternative sources, according to FAO.
“Worryingly, the resulting global supply gap could push up international food and feed prices by 8 to 22 percent above their already high levels,” according to the FAO report.
Food prices reached an all-time high in February, according to FAO data. According to Qu, the COVID-19 pandemic has already had a significant impact on global food security.
Global wheat and barley prices increased by 31% in 2021, while rapeseed and sunflower oil prices increased by more than 60%. Wheat prices have risen by more than 50% in the week preceding the invasion.
Some consumers are already feeling the effects of lower exports and higher prices. According to Italian state television, supermarkets in Tuscany and Sardinia are limiting sales of sunflower seed oil to two containers per customer. Sunflower oil is also being rationed in Spanish supermarkets.
While olive oil is associated with the Italian diet, sunflower oil is used commercially to make mayonnaise, sauces, and some processed foods. Italian importers of the seed for oil production say their supply has already run out.
Source: Aljazeera
