In Sunday’s election, Trump seems certain to easily defeat far-right candidate Marine Le Pen, earning a second term as president on his pro-business and pro-EU platform.
According to a flurry of exit polls and forecasts, centrist Macron of the La République En Marche party is expected to gain roughly 58 percent in the second and final round of voting, with Marine Le Pen of the nationalist and far-right National Rally party on 42 percent. In France, estimates are usually correct, but they may need to be fine-tuned as actual results become available.
Le Pen talked to her supporters in Paris immediately after the exit polls and conceded defeat. She called her triumph a “success” for her political movement, pointing to the legislative elections in June.
According to a Reuters translation, “the French showed this evening a desire for a powerful counterweight against Emmanuel Macron, for an opposition that would continue to defend and protect them.”
Despite Macron’s projected victory, the margin between the two candidates is narrowing in compared to the 2017 election, when Macron received 66.1 percent of the vote.
Later that evening, Macron addressed his supporters, stating that the resentment of those who voted for Le Pen, as well as those who abstained, must be addressed. “I am no longer a candidate for a camp, but the president of all,” he declared, assuring that “none would be forgotten.”
Apathy among voters
The 2022 campaign took place against the backdrop of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a cost-of-living crisis in France, a surge in far-left support among younger generations, and reports of widespread voter indifference. According to the Interior Ministry, voter turnout on Sunday was 2 percentage points lower than in 2017.
Macron, 44, benefited from his stance and diplomatic attempts toward the Russia-Ukraine conflict at the outset of his campaign. However, in the days leading up to the first round of voting on April 10, that support faded as French residents focused more on local issues and rising inflation.
Marine Le Pen, who has already stood for president of France three times, chose to focus on the economic hardships of French voters rather than her past rhetoric on the European Union and euro integration.
Putin’s ties
Nonetheless, as the second round of voting approached, the two candidates and their proposals came under further scrutiny. Macron attacked Le Pen’s historical links with Russia and President Vladimir Putin in a two-hour television discussion on Wednesday, accusing her of being reliant on Moscow.
Macron predicted a “civil war” if Le Pen’s plans to prohibit Muslim women from wearing headscarves in public were implemented.
Macron’s victory makes him the first French president to win re-election in two decades.
He’ll now focus on pursuing his reforming agenda, which includes recent promises to help France achieve full employment and raise the retirement age from 62 to 65.
Macron’s convincing victory, according to Frederic Leroux, head of the cross asset team at French investment manager Carmignac, is expected to reassure markets.
“The euro, which was still flirting with two-year lows against the dollar last Friday,” he said in a flash research note after the predictions, “may be the biggest logical benefactor of this election in the immediate run.”
The market’s negative reaction to this relatively easy election could come from a hasty decision in favor of a Russian oil embargo, which would intensify inflationary pressures and a European economic downturn (stagflation scenario),” he noted.
The conclusion, according to Berenberg’s senior economist Holger Schmieding, is “among the best news for Europe since the European Central Bank ended the euro crisis almost ten years ago in July 2012.”
“Because a second term for Macron was generally expected, the outcome may not impact markets significantly,” he wrote in a research note, adding that France will “most likely remain an engine of growth and progress in Europe for the next five years.”
