China has already decided to provide economic and financial assistance to Russia, and it is considering sending military supplies such as armed drones.
The Russian relationship is still important to Xi, and he is unlikely to abandon it in favor of aligning with a declining west, according to Bonnie Glaser, director of the Asia program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States. But he must decide how far he will go to assist Russia’s economy as sanctions – which China has long opposed – take effect.
“China will almost certainly find ways to assist Moscow in mitigating the impact of the sanctions without flagrantly violating them.” The playbook it has used to help Iran and North Korea avoid sanctions outlines potential actions China could take.”
According to Wen-Ti Sung, a political scientist at the Australian National University, China has little incentive to provide direct military aid.
“Beijing’s preferences are as follows: one, international stability; two, ensuring that the Russian economy and polity do not collapse under the weight of international sanctions; and three, not being seen as an overt enabler of Russian aggression.”
According to Hass, China is more likely to remain “rhetorically committed to showing support for Russia,” but will largely comply with international sanctions against it in order to avoid secondary sanctions.
“I also expect China to be cautious in providing any material support to Russia, given that such support would likely have a limited impact on the outcome of hostilities in Ukraine but significant impacts on China’s relations.”
