Despite the difficulties, Ghana’s GDP is anticipated to increase by 6.2 percent in 2022 and 6.8 percent in 2023, according to Standard Bank, the parent company of Stanbic Bank.
This is in line with the International Monetary Fund’s prediction, which puts the country’s growth rate at 6.2 percent in 2022.
The government has made substantial progress in immunizations, according to the report, and further loosening of COVID-19 limitations will boost economic demand and supply.
The mining and quarrying sub-sector expanded by 16.9% in 2021, compared to an average contraction of 10.7% in the six months leading up to June 2021, indicating that economic momentum may be resuming.
“The mining and quarrying sub-sector expanded by 16.9% quarter over quarter, up from an average decrease of 10.7% in the six months to June 21, indicating that growth momentum may be resuming.” The Obuasi mine is expected to start producing gold from underground ore sources on January 22, 2022. New contracts to execute mining activities at the Bibiani mine have already been awarded, indicating that the sector will see more investment in the coming years.”
“However, persisting global supply chain issues may limit growth in the cocoa and industrial sub-sectors in 2022,” the report continued.
Imports are projected to increase, which will affect the balance of payments.
According to the research, the current account deficit is predicted to increase to 5.0 percent of GDP in 2022, up from 3.9 percent in 2021.
“While we foresee a recovery in gold production and exports in the coming year, we also expect a significant increase in goods imports.” Non-oil imports may expand further as the economy recovers from the pandemic. Furthermore, given the government’s expansionary fiscal policy, capital goods imports are expected to stay high for the next two years. Higher international oil prices may also contribute to the widening of the trade deficit.”
Furthermore, due to fertiliser shortages, “cocoa production and exports could potentially be driven lower.” Cocoa and gold exports constituted for roughly 55.3 percent of total merchandise exports as of Q2:21.”
Access to the Eurobond market is dwindling.
The country’s capacity to tap the Eurobond market may deteriorate further, while foreign exchange reserves may continue under pressure until the government finds new sources of external finance, according to the report.
“As global risk rises in the first half of 2022, Ghana’s ability to access the Eurobond market may dwindle further.” Unless the government secures alternative sources of external bilateral and multilateral support, foreign exchange reserves may remain under pressure in 2022.”
